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(Report Producer/Author: Guotai Jun'an Securities, Xu Qiaowei, Zeng Dapeng)
Actively expand business boundaries, and the eight major bearing enterprises go global
1.1. The Eight Great Houses have a long history and a large size
The eight largest bearing enterprises in the world have a long history, relying on technology to start their businesses in the early stage, and first gained a leading position in the domestic market. Through multiple mergers and acquisitions, SKF has established a global presence and rapidly grown in scale, occupying the highest share of the bearing market; Schaeffler, Germany, actively expanded its overseas sales market and conducted merger and acquisition activities; Several Japanese enterprises seized the opportunity when the national economy was recovering and the bearing business was developing rapidly, and then expanded the global market. In the future, they wanted to make intelligent and automated transformation; During the recession in the United States, Timken actively sought overseas markets, acquired companies, and expanded product related fields.
1.2. Eight major bearings are actively deployed globally, with China as an important market
Internationalization strategy is the basic development strategy of the eight multinational bearing companies, and China is an important market for the eight. By the end of 2021, NSK Corporation of Japan had established sales networks in 29 countries and regions around the world, with 67 production bases; SKF Sweden has 105 production plants in 25 countries around the world, with sales outlets in 130 countries and regions; SCHAEFFLER, a German company, has more than 180 branches in more than 50 countries around the world, with over 79000 employees; NTN Corporation of Japan has 75 wholly-owned joint venture production plants in 16 countries around the world, and has established sales networks in 27 countries and regions around the world; Timken Corporation of the United States has operating agencies and production plants in 30 countries around the world, with nearly 20000 employees.
By the end of 2021, the eight largest multinational bearing companies in the world have invested in manufacturing bearings and related products in China. Among them, SKF Sweden has 10 production subsidiaries; SCHAEFFLER in Germany has 10 wholly owned factories and 2 research and development centers; TIMKEN in the United States has 8 large manufacturing bases, 2 logistics centers, and 14 offices; NSK Japan has a total of 13 research and production bases; NTN in Japan has 10 production bases, 12 sales bases, and 3 research and development centers; JTEKT in Japan has 12 production bases and 2 research and development centers; Japan NMB has 13 factories and Japan NACHI has 4 production bases.
The revenue scale of the eight major companies in China is generally over ten billion yuan. In terms of revenue scale, German Schaeffler Company has the largest revenue scale in China, reaching 25.4 billion yuan, accounting for the highest proportion of the company's total revenue, reaching 24%; The second is Japan Meibei, Sweden SKF, Japan JTEKT and Japan NSK, whose revenue scale in China is more than 10 billion yuan, respectively 13.8 billion yuan, 11.7 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan and 10.5 billion yuan, accounting for 22%, 19%, 14% and 22% of the company's total revenue; Next came NTN of Japan, Timken of the United States, and Fujitsu of Japan, with revenue scales of 5.1 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan in China, respectively, accounting for 14%, 15%, and 19% of the company's total revenue. It can be seen that China is an important market for major bearing enterprises. The five listed bearing enterprises in China have a small revenue scale, but their growth rate is high, and their future development space is considerable. Their revenue in China accounts for a high proportion, all exceeding 50%.
1.3. Chinese bearing enterprises have a smaller size, higher growth rate, and better profit margin compared to the eight major enterprises
Most Chinese bearing listed companies have a history of less than 30 years, but their product categories cover a complete range. 1) Wuzhou New Spring is based on bearing ring products and focuses on technological research and development to build core competitiveness. It is the first in China to launch an electric heating spheroidization annealing furnace that can replace traditional gas spheroidization annealing furnaces, meeting the standards of internationally renowned bearing manufacturers. Precision rolled bearing rings are stably supplied to multinational companies such as SKF in Sweden, FAG in Germany, and NSK in Japan. 2) Lixing Co., Ltd. completed its shareholding reform in 2010 and went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2015. It established JGBR Company in the United States to expand its overseas market, introducing European assembly line technology, and covering the fields of high-speed rail bearings and wind power bearing matching. It established a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on rollers and acquired 100% equity of the former Zhejiang Fenghua Jinyan Steel Ball Co., Ltd., which ranked third in China's steel ball industry, further expanding its product field; Lixing has now developed into the largest professional steel ball production and export base in China. 3) After ST Tianma went public in 1999, it researched advanced technology and positioned itself to develop high-end bearings with high added value to replace imports. At the same time, it introduced the cash processing technology of "replacing forging with pipe", gradually increasing its market share. At the end of 2001, its annual sales reached 250 million yuan. Through the acquisition of Chengdu Bearing Group in distress, it turned losses into profits and began to implement extensional expansion. In 2007, Tianma went public to raise funds and entered the field of wind power bearings and CNC machine tools. It independently developed high-quality special forging materials for bearings. At the end of 2007, it successfully developed yaw bearings and pitch bearings for wind turbines above 1.5 MW, with rapid growth in production capacity and sales performance. The targets of the company's restructuring are all bankrupt or difficult to operate enterprises. After multiple acquisitions, a complete industrial chain of resource recycling among the three industries of "materials, bearings, and equipment" has been formed. 4) Waxi Group completed equity diversification reform in 2010, and introduced private capital to complete joint venture cooperation in products such as oversized lathe workers. Through the acquisition of KRW, a German century-old technology company, we have taken the step of internationalization. Seizing the policy opportunities for the development of productive services, introducing private capital and investment company groups, improving organizational mechanisms, and establishing multiple business units, the group has now developed from a single bearing manufacturing factory into a national innovative enterprise with solutions for customers.
Compared to the world's eight largest bearing enterprises, Chinese bearing enterprises have a small revenue volume and high growth rate. Looking at the growth of enterprise revenue scale in 2021, the eight leading international enterprises have a huge revenue scale in 2021, occupying an objective share of the international market, with an average revenue growth of -0.69%; The revenue scale of the seven listed bearing enterprises in China is relatively small, and they are still in the initial growth and rising stage. Compared with 2020, the revenue in 2021 has significantly increased, with an average revenue growth rate of 25.73%. The Chinese bearing industry is undergoing rapid development, and the market has broad growth space.
The profit margin level of the eight major bearing enterprises is relatively low. The period expenses of the eight major enterprises, namely sales expenses, management expenses, and research and development expenses, all account for a relatively stable proportion of main business income. Therefore, the main reason for the changes in net profit margin and gross profit margin is the changes in main business income. In 2021, the main business income of SKEF in Sweden, Schaeffler in Germany, and Timken in the United States all increased by 6% to 10%, especially the main business income of SKEF and Schaeffler both increased by nearly 10%, mainly due to the improvement of the epidemic in 2021 and the return of operating income to the pre epidemic level. Meanwhile, the profit growth of Schaeffler is attributed to the rapid growth of demand in the main automotive manufacturing industry. However, the growth of several Japanese enterprises is sluggish, and there is also negative growth. The main reason is that recovery after the COVID-19 epidemic is difficult to make up for the decline in revenue. For NTN companies with negative net interest rates, the market demand for their main products has significantly decreased, leading to a significant decline in revenue. The decrease in Meibei's comprehensive gross profit margin is mainly due to the expansion of the low profit electronics industry. Among Japanese companies, Fujitsu performed well. In 2021, revenue growth was already the highest among Japanese companies. The company's revenue rose during a 5-6 year cycle, and the main reason for the low net profit was due to the impact of 13.3% of sales expenses.
The gross profit margin of listed Chinese bearing companies is high. The gross profit margin of listed bearing enterprises in 2021 is high, averaging 23.48%. From 2017 to 2021, the gross profit margin showed significant fluctuations, with an increase in gross profit margin levels from 2019 to 2020 and a slight decrease from 2020 to 2021. In the main business, the main component of operating costs is direct materials, which account for an average of over 60% of the operating costs of the main business.
There is a significant difference in the net interest rate of listed Chinese bearing companies. In 2021, the highest net interest rate was Xinqianlian 20.79%, followed by Hengrun Shares 19.17%, and the lowest net interest rate was ST Tianma -83.67% (mainly due to the existence of large debts that have been settled and cannot be repaid as scheduled). If the more extreme net interest rate value is removed, the average net interest rate of China's selected bearing companies in the Shanghai market for comparison is 8.80%.
The overall cost rate of listed Chinese bearing enterprises is well controlled. Among the expenses during the period, 1) The R&D expenses in the manufacturing industry are considerable, with the average R&D expense rate of 4.61% for the seven listed bearing companies in China, with the higher ones being Waxing B and Lixing Co., Ltd., which are 9.31% and 5.15%, respectively. 2) In terms of management expenses, ST Tianma's expense ratio reached 14.32%, mainly due to the increase in share-based payment expenses of the company in this period, with an average management expense ratio of 4.17% for the remaining six companies. 3) The average sales and financial expense ratios were 2.06% and 1.71%, respectively, with the higher sales expense ratio of tile shaft B, reaching 7.42%.
2. Inspiration from the Growth of World Bearing Enterprises
2.1. SKEF: Achieve a multi-disciplinary bearing business layout through mergers and acquisitions
2.1.1. Swedish manufacturing enterprises, active in mergers and acquisitions, with a broad layout
Sweden's established manufacturing industry is actively engaged in mergers and acquisitions, widely distributed, and developing rapidly. Founded in February 1907, SKEFL is a Swedish supplier of bearings, seals, mechatronics, lubrication systems, and services, providing technical support, maintenance and reliability services, engineering consulting, and training. The development of a company can be divided into five stages, and it can be seen that the company has achieved rapid growth through mergers and acquisitions after experiencing initial accumulation. Stage 1: CAGR, 0-1 billion kronor, 1907-1950, start-up stage. Sven Wingquist, the inventor of double row self-aligning ball bearings, is one of the founders of the company. By 1950, the company had completed a preliminary global sales layout, established branches and sales departments in multiple countries and regions, and completed upstream layouts such as mining and smelting, steel making and cold rolling. The company's main products were bearings, and it had tried automobile production. After abandoning in 1935, it focused on bearing production, involving automotive components.
Phase 2: SEK 1-10 billion, 1951-1979, M&A accumulation stage. During this period, the company acquired a total of 6 enterprises. And build factories in multiple locations around the world to achieve local production. In 1950, the new spherical roller bearing "C type bearing" technology was introduced. In 1976, it acquired an automobile parts manufacturing enterprise to further deepen the layout of automobile parts. The third stage: SEK 10-20 billion, with an accelerated growth rate from 1980 to 1988. During this period, the company acquired a total of 11 enterprises, while paying more attention to technology research and development, opening the SKF Engineering College, and strengthening technology research and development. Obtained ISO 14001 certification in 1988; Acquisition of AMPEP P.L.C., a British company that is a manufacturer of sliding bearings for aircraft, to enter the aerospace bearing field; Acquired a majority stake in Palomar Technology International Inc., an American company that produces and monitors the working condition of rolling bearings, and entered the field of production monitoring equipment.
Stage 4: SEK 20-40 billion, 1989-2000, cross domain layout stage. During this period, the company acquired a total of 20 enterprises. "Explorer" bearings were introduced in 1999. During this period, the company entered multiple industries through mergers and acquisitions, including the tool industry, seal production, laser measuring instrument production, steel cutting and cutting production, machine tool bearing production, and other fields. Phase 5: SEK 40-80 billion, 2001-2018, rapid development. During this period, the company acquired a total of 34 enterprises and entered the lubrication industry, railway bearing industry, server manufacturing and other industries. In 2007, a new energy-saving bearing was launched; In 2015, the research and development of wind power bearings began.
The company provides five major categories of products for industrial and automotive markets. The company's main products include bearings and supporting products, production process inspection equipment and systems, testing and measurement equipment and services, application mechanical maintenance services, and automotive aftermarket services, mainly serving the industrial and automotive markets. The industrial market includes general industry, heavy and special industries, energy/railway and non highway business departments, and the automotive market includes commercial vehicles, trucks, and automotive aftermarket.
The company expanded rapidly through mergers and acquisitions. Since 1916, SKF has expanded its business scale through mergers and acquisitions. Since its establishment, SKF has had over 84 mergers and acquisitions, with subsidiaries throughout the world. There have been 48 mergers and acquisitions in the field of bearings, mainly in 2000-20010. Through mergers and acquisitions of bearing enterprises, they have entered the industries of aviation bearings, railway bearings, machine tool bearings, and other industries, with wide downstream applications.
The company has a large scale and main production place is Europe. By the end of 2021, the company had 40861 employees, of whom 20816 were located in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, accounting for 50.9%; There are 87 production plants, with 47 located in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
In recent years, the number of production subsidiaries in Europe has increased rapidly. As of December 2021, the Group consists of 183 legal entities (subsidiaries), and AB SKF is the ultimate parent company directly or indirectly through an intermediate holding company. Among them, 57 subsidiaries are engaged in production related activities, and 27 are located in Europe, accounting for 47.4%.
2.1.2. The market is spread all over the world, and the profit margin has rebounded
The company's operating revenue remained approximately 60 billion yuan, and its profits quickly recovered in 2021. In recent years, the company's operating revenue has maintained approximately 60 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of between 25% and 30%, and a net profit margin of over 6%. The company has strong profitability. Affected by the global epidemic in 2020, the company's revenue decreased, and in 2021, its revenue recovered, and its net profit returned to the high level before the epidemic.
The company has a wide range of products, with Europe as the main sales market. The company operates in many industries and has a wide range of products. Europe is the main sales market, providing about 40% of the company's operating revenue.
The company mainly produces and sells industrial products, with higher profits for industrial products. The company's main business is divided into industrial products and automotive products, with industrial product sales accounting for about 70%, bringing more than 85% of the company's operating profit, with a higher profit margin than automotive products. The operating profit margin for industrial products is about 15%, and the operating profit margin for automotive products is about 6%.
The company's automotive products mainly serve the automotive front market, with a high growth rate in the rear market. Among the company's automotive related products, the automotive front market provides nearly 70% of revenue, while the automotive rear market has seen a rapid growth in revenue in recent years, with a higher proportion.
The company's asset liability ratio is about 60%, with a high ROE and stable turnover. In 2021, the company's total asset size reached 70 billion yuan, with a stable asset-liability ratio of about 60%, healthy assets, and a high ROE level. In recent years, the ROE was about 15%. Stable turnover of accounts receivable and inventory.
The company has good liquidity and low financial pressure. The quick ratio of the company has kept rising, often greater than 1 in recent years, and the solvency and cash liquidity are good. The company's net cash ratio is greater than 1 in the long term, with cash guarantees for revenue and low financial pressure. The company uses the indirect method to calculate the cash flow statement. Due to the large depreciation and amortization, the net cash in 2002 and 2020 was relatively high.
2.1.3. Start China business earlier, expand production and focus on the Yangtze River Delta
SKF is active in conducting business in China. In 1912, SKF started its business in China through its UK subsidiary in the early stage. After the founding of New China, until 1996, SKF returned to China to conduct business. In recent years, SKF has actively cooperated with Chinese enterprises such as Waxi and China Railway, and has also established production bases and research and development centers in China.
SKF has 10 production subsidiaries in China and has rapidly expanded in the Yangtze River Delta region in recent years. In September 2018, SKF invested in the construction of a ball bearing production center in Xinchang, Zhejiang, with a first phase investment of SEK 370 million, followed by an additional SEK 400 million; In 2017, SKF launched the first phase project of China Small Tapered Roller Bearing Production Base in Changshan, Zhejiang Province. The project was put into production in April 2019, and a second phase project was added.
2.2. Schaeffler: Deeply ploughing into the automotive field, achieving a leap from parts to assembly suppliers
2.2.1. Extend the acquisition of LuK and FAG to achieve a leap from parts to automotive assembly suppliers
The company is the world's second largest rolling bearing manufacturer leader. The company started with INA bearings, acquired LuK in 1964, took over FAG in 2002, and was successfully listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2015. Schaeffler broke through the international industrial manufacturing market through INA needle roller bearings, and then bound to benchmark customers from major automotive OEMs around the world such as Volkswagen, BMW, Porsche, and Audi through automotive assembly supply. Its downstream products cover automotive, aerospace, wind power, industrial manufacturing, and other fields. Since opening up the Chinese market in 1995, Greater China has become the company's second largest business area after Europe, and it is also an important production and sales base for wind power bearings. The history of Schaeffler can be divided into the following four stages. The first stage, from 1946 to 1980, was the starting period with a CAGR of 25.6%. The second stage, from 1980 to 1995, was a rapid growth period, with revenue increasing from 1.97 billion to about 20 billion, with a CAGR of 16.4%. The third stage, from 1995 to 2005, was a stable development period with a CAGR of 14.8%. The fourth stage, from 2005 to 2022, was a fluctuation period with a CAGR of 1.7%.
The first stage: 1946-1980, INA bearings started. In 1946, William Schaeffler and George Schaeffler founded German Industry Co., Ltd., which is now one of the largest family owned enterprises in Germany. In the early days, we focused on the manufacturing of textiles and daily wooden products, such as belt buckles, buttons, and carts. The INA needle roller cage was invented in 1949, and the INA industrial needle roller bearing brand was registered in 1951, transforming into the manufacturing of needle bearing metal products. The second stage: 1980-1995, overseas expansion, entering the Chinese market. The company has successively opened overseas production bases and sales points in France, Britain, Brazil, and the United States. With the collapse of the Iron Curtain in 1989, the company entered the Eastern European and Asian markets, and entered the Chinese market in 1995. Schaeffler has broken through the international industrial manufacturing market through INA. Due to its excellent performance and rotational speed, INA needle roller bearings have become indispensable components for major German automobiles, as well as important components for automobiles, mechanical engineering, and factory buildings at home and abroad.
Stage 3: From 1995 to 2005, FAG and LuK were wholly acquired, and the product portfolio was upgraded. In 1999, Schaeffler repurchased the clutch leader LuK Company he founded. In 2001, he took over FAG Lianghe Company, becoming the world's second largest manufacturer of rolling bearings and the leader of diaphragm spring clutch manufacturers. Subsequently, it successively acquired companies such as Baden, Hydral, IDAM, and Schaeffler Engineering. In 2003, Schaeffler Group was established, and the strategic layout of three major brands, INA, LuK, and FAG, was formed. The industry expanded rapidly. The product line expanded from bearing manufacturing to the field of automotive assembly, covering the processing of high-precision automotive engines, gearboxes, and chassis components and systems, becoming a world-renowned supplier of integrated automotive and industrial products. The fourth stage: 2005-2022, IPO, business adjustment and electric transformation. In 2008, Schaeffler Group maliciously acquired Continental, the world's fourth largest automotive parts manufacturer, and the financial crisis caused the company to suffer severe setbacks and approach bankruptcy. In 2015, the company completed an IPO to repay debts, with Maria Elisabeth Schaeffler and her son George Schaeffler owning 20% and 80% of the shares, respectively. It was successfully listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (main board market). In response to the global dilemma of reduced demand for ball bearings in electric vehicles and a sharp decline in revenue, in 2019, the company launched a RACE restructuring plan. Through a series of measures such as layoffs in the engine and transmission systems departments and factory closures, it reduced its dependence on traditional businesses within 1.5 to 2 years, focusing on the electric drive business, and emerged from the revenue crisis.
Based on the field of bearing manufacturing, expand the field of automotive assembly design and manufacturing, and open the ceiling of growth. The company has accumulated 148 mergers and acquisitions of domestic and foreign subsidiaries, with the largest proportion of targeted mergers and acquisitions in the automotive manufacturing sector, with 29 mergers and acquisitions, accounting for 19.6%. The second largest proportion of target mergers and acquisitions in the field of bearing manufacturing, with 24 mergers and acquisitions, accounting for 16.2%. From 1980 to 2000, the company gradually completed the acquisition of auto parts manufacturing companies such as AFT and LuK, expanding from single bearing manufacturing to automotive assembly manufacturing, opening the growth ceiling. Since 2017, the company has acquired Compact Dynamics to produce high-performance lightweight motors, transforming and upgrading to the field of new energy vehicles.
The company's products are mainly involved in three major fields: automotive manufacturing, automotive after-sales, and industrial manufacturing. 1) In the field of automobile manufacturing, it covers three types of high-precision components and systems, including the engine, gearbox, and chassis of fuel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and electric vehicles. Its main products include clutch systems, transmission components, torque dampers, valve mechanism systems, camshaft phase units, and electric actuators. 2) In the automotive after-sales field, I am mainly responsible for the global automotive replacement parts business, providing comprehensive maintenance solutions for passenger cars, light and heavy commercial vehicles, and tractors. My main products are clutch and clutch release systems, as well as products for engines, transmissions, and chassis. 3) In the field of industrial manufacturing, the main products include rolling bearings and sliding bearings, linear technology, maintenance products, monitoring systems, and direct drive technology, covering high-speed and high-precision bearings with small diameters to large-sized bearings with diameters exceeding 3 meters, with a focus on intelligent products and component interconnections.
2.2.2. Automobile manufacturing is the main revenue force, with sustained growth in Greater China
Revenue and net profit fluctuated significantly from 2006 to 2021. Revenue declined by CAGR - 5.6% in 2006-2009, mainly affected by the Great Depression and financial crisis in global stock and credit markets. From 2010 to 2019, the revenue grew steadily by CAGR 3.4%. In 2020 and 2021, affected by the continued weakness of the epidemic automotive market, the revenue decreased by 11.3%, with a total revenue of 13.85 billion euros (approximately 100.1 billion yuan) in 2021. The net profit fluctuates greatly, ranging from 4 billion to 7.5 billion yuan in 2015-2018, to -33.7 billion yuan in 2020, and rebounded to 5.77 billion yuan in 2021.
The company's level of automation is higher than the industry average. In 2021, EBIT was 9.09 billion yuan, net profit was 5.49 billion yuan, and group assets were 103.67 billion yuan. The company has about 200 branches in more than 50 countries around the world, with 82981 employees. In 2021, the company generated 1.206 million yuan of income per capita, and 103000 yuan of profit per capita. The degree of automation is higher than the industry average.
In terms of products, the automotive manufacturing sector is the main revenue force, and the automotive after-sales sales revenue maintains a sustained growth. In terms of revenue, 1) Automobile manufacturing is the main department of the company, accounting for over 60% of the revenue. In 2021, the revenue of automobile manufacturing will reach 60.9 billion yuan; The decline in automotive manufacturing revenue was mainly caused by the weakness of the global automotive market. In 2020, European automotive production decreased by - 20.4% in Europe, - 21.8% in the Americas, - 20.0% in the Asia Pacific region, and - 16.1% in the world; Among them, in 2019, the revenue driven by calls grew rapidly, and by 2021, the revenue exceeded 7.5 billion yuan, accounting for 12.4%. 2) After the independence of the automotive after-sales department in 2015, the proportion of revenue remained stable at 12% -14%, reaching 1.85 billion euros in revenue by 2021. The growth in revenue was mainly caused by the growth in global car ownership and car age, especially in 2021, China's car ownership significantly increased by 6.9% to 270 million vehicles, with an average car age increasing to 6.4 years old. 3) The proportion of industrial manufacturing revenue gradually decreased from 2009 to 2016, increased from 2017 to 2021, and reached 25.8 billion yuan in revenue by 2021, mainly due to the growth of industrial distribution in the Americas and strong growth in the Indian wind and off-road industries in the Asia Pacific region.
Regionally, Europe and Greater China are the main revenue drivers, with a faster revenue growth rate in Greater China. 1) The proportion and scale of revenue in Europe are continuously shrinking, with revenue of 42 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for 42%. Germany is the largest sales market in Europe; 2) Greater China is the main revenue driving force, with the revenue share and scale increasing year by year. In 2021, the revenue was 23.8 billion yuan, accounting for 23.8%, mainly driven by the rush to install offshore wind power in China; 3) The growth rate in the Asia Pacific region is relatively fast, with India's growth rate (21.5%) significantly higher than Japan's (12.2%) and South Korea's (1.8%).
The company's level of automation is higher than the industry average. In 2021, EBIT was 9.09 billion yuan, net profit was 5.49 billion yuan, and group assets were 103.67 billion yuan. The company has about 200 branches in more than 50 countries around the world, with 82981 employees. In 2021, the company generated 1.206 million yuan of income per capita, and 103000 yuan of profit per capita. The degree of automation is higher than the industry average.
In terms of products, the automotive manufacturing sector is the main revenue force, and the automotive after-sales sales revenue maintains a sustained growth. In terms of revenue, 1) Automobile manufacturing is the main department of the company, accounting for over 60% of the revenue. In 2021, the revenue of automobile manufacturing will reach 60.9 billion yuan; The decline in automotive manufacturing revenue was mainly caused by the weakness of the global automotive market. In 2020, European automotive production decreased by - 20.4% in Europe, - 21.8% in the Americas, - 20.0% in the Asia Pacific region, and - 16.1% in the world; Among them, in 2019, the revenue driven by calls grew rapidly, and by 2021, the revenue exceeded 7.5 billion yuan, accounting for 12.4%. 2) After the independence of the automotive after-sales department in 2015, the proportion of revenue remained stable at 12% -14%, reaching 1.85 billion euros in revenue by 2021. The growth in revenue was mainly caused by the growth in global car ownership and car age, especially in 2021, China's car ownership significantly increased by 6.9% to 270 million vehicles, with an average car age increasing to 6.4 years old. 3) The proportion of industrial manufacturing revenue gradually decreased from 2009 to 2016, increased from 2017 to 2021, and reached 25.8 billion yuan in revenue by 2021, mainly due to the growth of industrial distribution in the Americas and strong growth in the Indian wind and off-road industries in the Asia Pacific region.
Regionally, Europe and Greater China are the main revenue drivers, with a faster revenue growth rate in Greater China. 1) The proportion and scale of revenue in Europe are continuously shrinking, with revenue of 42 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for 42%. Germany is the largest sales market in Europe; 2) Greater China is the main revenue driving force, with the revenue share and scale increasing year by year. In 2021, the revenue was 23.8 billion yuan, accounting for 23.8%, mainly driven by the rush to install offshore wind power in China; 3) The growth rate in the Asia Pacific region is relatively fast, with India's growth rate (21.5%) significantly higher than Japan's (12.2%) and South Korea's (1.8%).
2) Schaeffler is the only company in the world with comprehensive system certification for aviation bearing design, production, and maintenance, with high technical barriers to bearings. The company's two major brands, FAG and BARDEN, are equipped in almost all mainstream Western passenger and military aircraft, such as Airbus and Boeing. Among them, the Trent 900 and GP7000, the two engines of the world's largest passenger aircraft Airbus A380, both use FAG spindle bearings. The products use advanced materials (ceramic rolling elements), unique heat treatment technology (secondary hardening), and plating technology, significantly improving the life of the bearings under severe operating conditions, with high technical barriers. In 2018, Schaeffler Aerospace Bearing Taicang Co., Ltd. was certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The group has won the two-factor authentication of Nadcap (aerospace and defense quality management system) and AS9100 (aerospace quality management system), and is listed as an official maintenance service provider in Pratt Whitney and GE engine manufacturer manuals.
3) Starting from the manufacturing of individual bearings to automobile assemblies, the value of individual vehicles has increased significantly. The company was the first to produce a single bearing, with INA needle roller bearings priced in the range of 18-120 yuan per unit, and FAG self-aligning roller bearings priced in the range of 70-280 yuan per unit, with a weak voice. The company has transformed and upgraded to a Tier 1 automotive assembly supplier, with a unit price of 30000 to 60000 yuan for the engine system, 40000 to 70000 yuan for the transmission system, and 9000 to 25000 yuan for the electric drive system. The value of a single vehicle has increased by more than 30 times. The company has increased its voice, reduced product substitutability, and increased customer stickiness. Among them, the electric drive assembly plate will become the main driving force in the future. The new energy vehicle market provides huge growth space for the electric drive business, and it is expected that the global electric drive market will reach over 50 billion yuan in 2025. The company is accelerating the transformation and upgrading of electric drives, continuously developing electric bridges, hybrid modules, and wheel hub drive assemblies. The electric business of Audi and Porsche's large customers has been rapidly introduced, and future growth is expected.
4) The global wind power downstream market is broad. According to the 2022 GWEC Global Wind Power Report, in 2021, 94GW of new wind power installations were added globally, and it is expected that 557GW of new installed capacity will be added in the next five years, with a CAGR of 6.6%, indicating strong wind power growth. Wind power bearings are one of the fastest growing downstream sectors of the Group. In 2021, the Group's revenue from the wind power and hydrogen energy downstream sectors was 4.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2%, accounting for 19% in the industrial manufacturing sector. The company has provided 2MW and 3MW spherical roller bearings for Vestas, the global top 1 wind power plant, and flange double row tapered roller main bearing for Mingyang Wind Power. After the official launch of the No. 4 plant of Schaeffler Nanjing Plant in 2021, the company accelerated the production capacity improvement and localization project of wind power bearings, focusing on developing wind power spindle bearings, heavy industry bearings, gear box bearings, and other products with a diameter of over 800mm.
Schaeffler factories and research and development centers are located throughout Europe, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company has 20 research and development centers, 150 factories, and 15 dual system training centers in over 50 countries worldwide. Among them, the European region is the largest production base, headquartered in Nuremberg, Germany, with 43 factories, 10 research and development centers, and 53006 employees.
Greater China is the second largest business area outside Europe and an important automotive bearing production base. In 2021, Schaeffler's revenue in Greater China exceeded 23.8 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 5.5% in 2017-2021, second only to Europe. The company has 10 wholly-owned factories and 2 research and development centers in Greater China, with 12337 employees. The Shanghai Anting Research and Development Center is the largest research and development base besides the German headquarters. Greater China is also an important automotive bearing production base. Yinchuan Factory annually produces 7.06 million sets of tapered roller bearings, Nanjing Factory annually produces 836000 sets of precision bearings, and Taicang New Base Factory plans to complete the construction of a production line with an annual output of 50 million pieces (sets) of aviation rolling bearings, linear guide rail system equipment, and gearboxes by 2023. In 2021, the No. 4 factory building of Nanjing Factory was officially launched, mainly producing wind turbine spindle bearings, gearbox bearings, heavy industry bearings, and other products with an annual production capacity of 12500 sets. It will soon become the largest wind turbine bearing manufacturing base in Asia.
2.3. Timken: Starting from North America and moving towards the world with tapered roller bearings
2.3.1. The world's leading manufacturer of bearings and power transmission products with a long history
Stage 1: From 1899 to 1929, the company was established and listed. In 1885, the founder of TIMKEN Timken Company, Henry Timken, invented a bearing using conical rollers for the axle, that is, conical roller bearings. In 1899, the company was officially founded in St. Louis, Missouri, USA. In 1921, the company successfully converted all American automakers from competitor ball bearings to TIMKEN tapered roller bearings. In 1922, the company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). In 1929, with net sales of $42.7 million, it officially became one of the 200 largest industrial companies in the United States. Stage 2: From 1930 to 1979, I explored new products and international markets, and participated in global competition. From 1930 to 1950, in the context of the Great Depression in the United States, Timken shifted its focus of development to markets outside the United States, including the United Kingdom, France, South Africa, and others. In 1946, Timken successfully occupied 80% of the American tapered roller bearing market and 25% of the wear-resistant bearing market. From 1951 to 1979, the company further expanded into the international market and conducted business in countries such as Mexico, Australia, France, and Japan, achieving new manufacturing and research and development capabilities and participating in global competition.
The third stage: 1980-1999, a continuous global expansion stage, with a CAGR of 12%. From 1980 to 1989, the company's R&D center doubled in size and opened sales outlets in Italy, South Korea, Singapore, and Venezuela, continuously improving production efficiency and increasing revenue. From 1990 to 1999, the company acquired companies such as MPB, successfully expanding its bearing production capacity in Italy and Romania, and introduced metric tapered roller bearings, improving the company's position in the aerospace and ultra-precision fields, with significant revenue and profit growth. This stage is a period of rapid expansion of the company's scale and rapid growth of revenue. Stage 4: From 2000 to 2015, during the transformation phase of global business and product portfolio, the CAGR was 2%. From 2003 to 2005, the company acquired Torrington Company and expanded its business in China, resulting in significant improvements in the company's production and sales capabilities during this period. In 2010, the company completed the acquisition of QM Bearing Company and opened a factory in Xiangtan, China, thereby expanding the company's production capacity of wind power bearings. From 2011 to 2014, we planned to purchase multiple power transmission enterprises and expand our product portfolio in chains, gear drives, belts, belt bearing units, and industrial services. In 2015, the company became the world's largest manufacturer of tapered roller bearings, continuously expanding its capabilities in the field of self-aligning roller bearings and cylindrical roller bearings. However, due to the negative monetary policy, currency issuance, and high interest expenses at that time, the company's profits slightly decreased.
Stage 5: Since 2017, the development speed has exceeded the market average, and excellent operation has permeated the entire enterprise, with a CAGR of 6%. From 2016 to 2019, the company acquired multiple power transmission companies, expanding its product portfolio in the fields of couplings, automatic lubrication systems, clutches and brakes, gear drives, linear motion, and chains. The growth rate exceeded the market average, and the operating income and profit have shown a steady upward trend in recent years. In 2021, the company's sales reached 4.133 billion yuan. Since its establishment, Timken remains the world's leading authority on tapered roller bearings, and has used this expertise to develop a complete product portfolio of industry-leading engineering bearings and power transmission products. Currently, the company has over 18000 employees and operates in 42 countries around the world. It has established 129 manufacturing plants and service centers, 23 technical engineering centers, and 62 distribution centers and warehouses.
2.3.2. Steady development of performance and increasing proportion of processing industry
The company's products are mainly involved in the two major fields of engineering bearings and power transmission, and provide corresponding supporting services for customers. In 2021, the revenue of engineering bearing products accounted for 68%, and the revenue of power transmission products accounted for 32%. 1) The company's main industrial bearing products include tapered roller bearings, cylindrical roller bearings, ball bearings, sliding bearings, and bearing units with seats, and develops bearing repair services in industrial, railway, and aerospace applications. 2) Power transmission products mainly include linear motion products, transmission devices, automatic lubrication systems, chains, belts, couplings, and industrial clutches and brakes. The company continues to enrich its power transmission product portfolio to improve the reliability and efficiency of industrial machinery and equipment.
The proportion of revenue from the processing industry has increased rapidly, gradually becoming the main business of the company's revenue. The growth rate of revenue from various products fluctuates greatly. In terms of revenue, 1) Before 2018, the mobile industry was the main business of the company's revenue, accounting for almost 50% of the revenue, with a decrease in individual years. The processing industry has developed rapidly in recent years, with a relatively rapid growth in revenue and proportion. In 2018, the proportion exceeded that of the mobile industry for the first time, and by 2021, the revenue exceeded 13.9 billion yuan, accounting for 52.43%, becoming the company's main revenue business. 2) In 2013, the company's steel and aerospace business and bearing and power transmission business were split into two listed companies. The new special steel company operates as an independent listed company, and the bearing and power transmission business will continue to operate as Timken. Therefore, after 2013, the company's revenue no longer includes the steel business and aerospace business.
From 1979 to 2021, the company's net interest rate fluctuated significantly, showing an overall upward trend, with a high per capita income generation level. In the early stage of development, the company's revenue mainly came from bearing products and their upstream products, alloy steel, and the net interest rate remained between 3% and 4%, but occasionally there were significant fluctuations. The significant decline in net interest rates in 1982 and 1986 was mainly due to the decline in profits brought about by the company's revenue decline during the period. In 1993, due to the impact of increased capital expenditure caused by the increase in the scale of overseas investment, the company's net interest rate fell to -15.82%. In the 21st century, with the expansion of the R&D center, the stability of overseas markets, and the company's active exploration and innovation in the field of power transmission, the company's net profit rate has further rebounded. The significant decline in net interest rates in 2009 was mainly due to the impact of the global economic crisis that erupted the previous year, as weak market demand and exchange rate changes led to a significant decline in the company's revenue; In 2001 and 2015, due to the company's commitment to expanding its product portfolio and carrying out a large number of acquisitions and restructuring businesses, related expenses increased, resulting in a slight decrease in net interest rates. In recent years, as the company continues to expand its product portfolio in the field of power transmission, revenue has been increasing, net interest rates have shown a steady growth trend, and average per capita income generation is above 1 million, indicating that the company has a high degree of automation and good profitability.
Since 2010, the company's inventory turnover rate and accounts receivable turnover rate have shown a downward trend, with a slight decline in short-term solvency. During the period from 2000 to 2004, the company's accounts receivable turnover rate and inventory turnover rate showed an upward trend, indicating that the company's product sales were relatively smooth, the backlog of inventory was small, the level of inventory occupancy was low, liquidity was strong, and the collection speed was fast, the average accounting period was short, the company's liquidity was strong, and the short-term debt repayment ability was high. Since 2005, although the company's accounts receivable turnover rate and inventory turnover rate have continuously decreased, and its liquidity has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, overall, it is at a high level, and the company's liquidity and debt paying ability are still relatively excellent.
2.3.3. Strategic acquisitions expand the product portfolio and continuously increase global market share
The rapid development of the automotive industry and equipment manufacturing industry has driven demand growth, leading the rapid growth of Timken Company. The period 1979-1999 was the fastest growing period for Timken. From 1.97 billion yuan in 1979 to over 20 billion yuan in 1999, the company's scale expanded rapidly, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) The rapid development of the world automotive industry and equipment manufacturing industry in the 1970s and 1990s led to the increase in the global bearing market size, and the world market size has jumped from several billion dollars to several billion dollars to tens of billions of dollars. In 1992, the world's bearing sales reached 19 billion US dollars. The increasing demand for bearings in the market and the increase in armament purchases by the United States to strengthen military power during this period have benefited Timken's steel, transmission, and aviation departments; 2) It has a wide range of businesses and continues to increase investment in research and development. During this period, the company established two major divisions: the Steel Division and the Bearing and Transmission Division. Its main products include, in addition to bearings and their components, alloy steel and aviation transmission systems. It also provides customized services such as maintenance, repair, reconstruction, and training for global end customers. Extensive business scope, expanding the company's high-end customer base, and stabilizing revenue sources have promoted the company to achieve rapid development during this period.
Expand product portfolio through strategic acquisitions. Timken has always maintained a high degree of sensitivity to the context of market development. In the current context of the global economic downturn, it has adapted to the trend of market demand development, timely adjusted its strategy and continuously expanded its business areas. Since 2003, the company has successively acquired multiple enterprises, which not only enriched the company's own bearing product portfolio, consolidated the company's position in the bearing market, but also further expanded the company's business in the power transmission field, allowing the product line to gain more space in the development process of the global market-oriented architecture. Currently, Timken's power transmission products include industrial transmission devices, automatic lubrication systems, chains, couplings, sealing rings, lubricants, and after-sales services in related fields. In 2021, the revenue of power transmission products accounted for 32% of the total revenue.
Stabilize the local market and continue global expansion. While stabilizing its local market share, Timken has continued to expand externally, expanding its global sales scale, and further enhancing its corporate influence. In addition to the US market where the company's headquarters are located, China has become Timken's second largest market in the world, with its sales revenue increasing from 9.51% in 2019 to 14.89% in 2020. Currently, Timken's Asia Pacific and China headquarters are located in Shanghai, with a total number of 3600 employees in the Greater China region. It has invested in the construction of eight large-scale manufacturing bases, respectively in Yantai City, Shandong Province, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province (2), Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, Xiangtan City, Hunan Province, Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province, Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province, Changyi City, Shandong Province, as well as 2 logistics centers and 14 offices, We are committed to introducing global high-quality power transmission products and providing industrial product management services to dealers in the Chinese industrial after-sales market to meet the rapidly growing local demand.
2.4. Bueryue: Relying on endogenous development, with wide product coverage
2.4.1. Japanese machinery manufacturing enterprises with a wide range of product coverage
Japan's established manufacturing enterprise has a strong development foundation in the past century. Founded in 1928, the full name of NaCHI-FUJIKOSHI CORP is based in the production of mechanical tools. Currently, it is a manufacturing enterprise specializing in mechanical processing, functional components, materials, and robotic equipment. The company has grown with the development of modernization in Japan, and after the Japanese economy entered a period of stagnation, it has carried out reform and innovation, realized a global production and sales strategy, and bloomed new vitality. In 1949, the company was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The company's products are involved in the entire industrial chain of mechanical processing and production. Each business unit of the company is divided into four major business units: mechanical processing, robotics, materials, and functional components. The company's products involve six major steps in the production of general industrial machinery: material heat treatment; Cutting and cutting molding; Heat treatment and surface modification; Grinding processing; Industrial parts; Assembly, welding, and handling. 1) Mechanical Processing Division. It mainly involves the production of tool products and working machinery. Tool products were the starting products of the company since its establishment in 1928, when the Japanese industry was in the trend of tool localization. Currently, the main products include drills, milling cutters, spiral angle taps, and other products. Working machinery products refer to general machine tools, gear composite processing machines, screw grinders, and other products. In 1939, the company began to develop relevant working machinery on its own in order to achieve cost reduction in the production of tools and bearing products. 2) Materials Division. It mainly involves the production of special steel and industrial furnaces. Special steel products were introduced by the company in 1938 to reduce costs and increase efficiency, building an integrated production line from materials to products. Currently, the products include high-performance superalloys, pre hardened bars, and extremely fine hard wire rods. Industrial furnace products began to enter the market in 1964, achieving the goal of internalizing heat treatment for tools, bearings, and other products, mainly including vacuum carbon immersion furnaces, surface coating devices, vacuum degreasing purification devices, and other products. 3) Functional Parts Division. Mainly related to bearings, hydraulic and automotive hydraulic products. In 1939, the company achieved a breakthrough in bearing technology through the use of advanced grinding heat treatment technology obtained in high-quality materials and tool manufacturing. Its products involve industrial machinery, automobiles, and other fields. The company's bearing products account for more than 30% of its revenue, making them its main products. Hydraulic products include energy-saving hydraulic systems, hydraulic components for construction machinery, industrial machinery, etc. Since 1958, mechanical equipment for internal work of companies such as broaching machines began to enter this field. Automotive hydraulic products are high-end products among hydraulic products. Currently, they mainly include automotive hydraulic stations and supporting components. In 1989, the company developed this business based on hydraulic control technology and the high reliability of bearings. 4) Robotics Division. In 1968, relying on machine tool technology and hydraulic technology to achieve a breakthrough in robot technology, in line with the trend of factory mechanization transformation, the company has robot research and development centers in many parts of the world. In 2022, robot revenue growth was significant. Currently, the main products include lightweight and compact robots, palletizing robots, high-speed spot welding robots, handling robots, assembly robots, and so on.
日本国内仍为不二越主要生产地，亚太地区为扩产目标。截至 2021 年 底，不二越共有员工 7210 人，其中 4710 人位于日本国内，占比 65.3%； 共有生产工厂 28 个，12 家位于日本国内，另有 11 家位于亚太地区（除 日本），日本国内仍为不二越主要生产地，亚太地区为公司未来扩产目 标。
2.4.2. 不二越营收波动较大
公司营收呈周期性波动，受宏观环境影响。公司近三十年来营收呈现出 5-6 年的周期性波动，并在波动中逐步上升。公司近 5 年来营收稳定在 130-160 亿人民币，2020 年受疫情影响有一定下滑，未来有望保持平稳 增长。2009 年，工业设备受经济危机滞后影响，2008 年大幅提振基建 行业，2009 年新兴市场需求大幅下降，使得以汽车为首的产业机械、电 机等领域产品需求大幅收缩。
公司毛利水平稳定，净利率不高，受销售费用影响较大。公司毛利率稳 定在 20%以上，净利率水平不高，在 1% - 6%间波动，受较高的三费影 响，三费的营收占比为 15%-18%，其中销售费用占比最大，营收占比 11%-15%。
轴承与液压设备为主要产品，汽车市场为主要下游市场，近年机器人产 品营收明显增长。公司分别于 1937 年和 1958 年开始涉足轴承于液压领 域，有深厚底蕴与竞争优势，轴承与油压设备为公司主要销售产品，近 年占比保持约 60%，2021 年分别占比 32%和 31%。公司产品主要供给 汽车市场，2021 年汽车市场销售占比 48%。近年公司在海内外多地设立 机器人研发中心，营收增速有明显增长，从 2009 年的 6%提升到 2021 年的 12%。下游能源基础设施、工业机械和汽车市场相关性较高，与营收同频共振。
日本国内为主要销售市场，亚太市场有所增长，海外市场中中国占比大。 本国销售仍为公司主要销售地，本国销售近年保持在 50%以上，2021 年 为 51%。公司近年的规划为产业专业至新兴市场，亚太地区增长明显。 海外市场中，中国为重要市场，2021 年中国市场销售占比 19%，高于其 他国家销售额。
公司资产负债率稳步下降，ROE 水平受限于净利润。公司总资产规模 约 180 亿元，公司资产负债率保持稳定下降，自 2000 年的 81%下降至 2021 年的 57%，ROE 水平较低主要受限于净利润较低，公司三费较高， 影响了公司净利润水平。
公司流动性较好，财务压力小。公司速动比率保持提升，近年保持在 0.8-1.0，偿债能力及现金流动性较好。公司净现比长期大于 1，营收有 现金保障，财务压力小。公司采用间接法计算现金流量表，因折旧摊销 较大， 2002 年和 2020 年净现比较高。
2.4.3. 中国是不二越第二大市场
不二越自 2003 年后逐步进入中国市场。不二越于 2003 年开始与上汽展 开合作，开始逐步进入中国市场，至 2010 年在中国开设机器人业务中 心，到 2021 年，中国已成为公司重要的海外市场。
不二越在中国有 4 个生产基地。这四处生产基地都成立于 2012-2014 年 间，其中上海有 2 处，分别生产轴承与工具；广东东莞有 1 处，主要生 产轴承；江苏张家港有 1 处，主要生产工具、液压设备（含汽车液压）、 工业机器人制造三大方向。
2.5. 恩斯克：世界轴承领先，盈利能力向好
2.5.1. 创新产品，出海并购，布局汽车飞机总成
公司强化轴承领先地位，向汽车、飞机零部件等领域布局。NSK 在战后 为日本经济以及工业实力的飞速增长做出了巨大的贡献。同时公司于 1947 年开始对外出口轴承产品，并于 60 年代首次在国外设立分公司， 自此，NSK 的海外业务开始兴起，于 1992 年首次在中国北京设立办事 处，自此昆山、合肥等地的分公司开始兴起。目前，公司主攻工业机械 轴承、汽车轴承、汽车零部件以及精密器械和相关零部件等产品，以上 四类产品约占公司全球销售份额的 97%，截至 2021 年 3 月，NSK 是日 本轴承行业市占率最高的企业，全球市占率排名第三。为实现舒适、安 全以及环保型社会的企业理念，NSK 一直致力于追求技术创新并且注重 产品品质的提升。“摩擦学”、“材料技术”、“解析技术”、“机电一体化” 是奠定 NSK 技术、服务的四大核心技术。以生产轴承为基础，逐渐将 市场领域延伸至汽车、食品设备、电动机、齿轮装置和机床等领域，应 用领域涉及医药、汽车等 17 个行业，构建了覆盖广泛的下游应用领域， 已经成为国内外轴承产品覆盖领域领先的企业。
公司的发展可以分为 1916-1944、1945-1970、1971-1985、1986-2001、 2002 至今这 5 个阶段。 第一阶段是 1916-1944 年。公司初成，轴承起步。1917 年，首次研发卡 车用轴承，随后几年又相继研发了起重机旋转用大型双列推力球轴承、 飞机发动机用圆柱滚子轴承和国铁汽车用轴承等，并在日本成立了两家 大型工厂。期间经历了 1914 年一战爆发、1923 年关东大地震和 1929 年 世界大萧条，使得营业收入下降，而 1920 年国际联盟成立和 1927 年日 本首条地铁开通又使得营业收入上升。1895 年首任社长山口武彦在美国 考察制钉技术，而后在 1914 年创立日本精工合资公司，为公司在 1916 年正式建立奠定了基础。 第二阶段是 1945-1970 年。打造世界级品牌，面对多元化挑战。CAGR 为 8.1%。从世界背景来看，1945 年联合国成立、1949 年中华人民共和 国成立、1969 年美国阿波罗 11 号、人类首次登陆月球都促使了这一阶 段营业收入的一定增长；从日本背景来看，1945 年太平洋战争结束、1953 年 NHK 开播、1964 年东海道新干线开通和 1969 年东名高速公路全线通 车使得营业收入在这一阶段实现大幅度上涨。
第三阶段是 1971-1985 年。向发达国家进军，往机电一体化转型。CAGR 为 2.2%。从世界背景来看，1975 年越南战争结束、1981 年“哥伦比亚” 号载人航天飞机以及人类首次迈向宇宙都对其营业收入有大幅度提升， 而 1982 年马尔维纳斯群岛战争将其推向一个低谷；从当时的日本背景 来看，1972 年中日邦交正常化和 1983 年的任天堂“家用电脑”上市， 都对营业收入有不同程度的推动，而 1973 年第一次石油危机使得营业 收入阶段性地下滑。 第四阶段是 1986-2001年。以亚洲为中心，全球化转型。CAGR 为 6.7%。 基于世界背景，1986 年苏联切尔诺贝利核电站事故、1989 年推倒柏林墙和 2001 年美国同时发生多起恐怖事件，这些都对营业收入有不同程 度的负面影响；而基于日本背景，1987 年国铁民营化、JR 正式成立， 使得营收上升了一小段时间，但不久后的 1989 年开始征收消费税（3%） 和 1995 年阪神淡路大地震又使得营收持续下降。该阶段整体来说是稳 中有进的。
第五阶段是 2002 年至今。进军发展中国家市场，致力创新可持续发展。 CAGR 为 2.2%。基于世界背景，2002 年欧洲 12 国开始统一使用货币“欧 元”、2008 年雷曼事件和 2016年人民币成为国际通货都使得营收有不同 程度的上升；基于日本背景，2002 年举办“FIFA”日韩世界杯和 2012 年东京天空树开业也对当时的营收起到了正面影响，但 2011 年东日本大 地震使得当年的营收有小幅度的下降。NSK 建立了全球人才教育基地 “全球培训中心”在日本竣工、开发新一代转向控制软件和开发台车型 自动移动机器人用直驱车轮单元，预测未来 NSK 会向自动化、智能化 转型。
收购 Iskra 和 Torrington 等轴承制造公司，布局汽车总成设计制造。1973 年，与美国 Hoover 公司合并。1990 年，NSK 收购了拥有欧洲大轴承厂 家 RHP 公司的 UPI 公司。1998 年，收购波兰 Iskra 公司。2003 年，收 购美国 Torrington 在 1963 年建立的滚针轴承合资公司。
公司产品主要涉足汽车行业与工业机械两大产业，包括工业机械轴承、 汽车轴承、汽车零部件以及精密器械和相关零部件四大领域，1）公司 工业机械轴承主要产品为各种农业机械、机床、注塑成型机、食品设备、 矿山机械、造纸机械、泵及压缩机、铁道、冶金设备、风力发电机轴承 等轴承产品。2）汽车轴承主要包括轮毂轴承单元、水泵用轴承、张紧 器轴承等发动机相关部件用轴承以及各种变速装置用轴承等，从各种轴 承到自动变速装置零部件、转向柱联轴节，乃至与 21 世纪的转向技术 即线控转向紧密相关的电动助力转向系统（EPS）等，现在 NSK 正在对 支持汽车三大要素即“行驶、转向、停止”的各种产品进行扩容，向更 加“安心、安全、舒适”的产品发展。3）汽车零部件包括电动机和齿 轮装置等，NSK 的轴承广泛用于电机的转动部分，其在支持顺畅而安静 的转动的同时，还能发挥承受电机所承载载荷的重大作用，向节能、节 省保养成本、小型轻量化、高可靠性方向发展。4）精密器械和相关零 部件包括医疗器械和半导体等，随着高速、高精度的诊断器械的开发， 对使用的轴承、直线产品提出了高速、高精度、高刚性、低振动、低噪 音、免维护的高要求。NSK 通过运用材料技术、润滑技术和精密技术等 NSK 独有的核心技术，满足市场的需求，为精密器械性能的提升做出了 巨大的贡献。
2.5.2. 汽车板块是营收主力，亚洲地区增长持续
2011-2020 年营收波动较大。盈利情况不容乐观，应及时调整营收策略， 合理管控成本。过去的十年间，企业经营利润与净利润经历了多次下降 与上升，走势基本相同，最为明显的是 2014年公司的经营利润与净利润分别增长了约三倍和一倍，而在近三年，公司经营利润有所下降，且 在 2020 年达到近十年最低水平，这与新冠疫情期间的停工停产等措施 密不可分。经营收入与归属母公司的净收入在近三年也达到了一个前所 未有的萎缩趋势，未来经营策略应及时调整。 企业人数基本保持平稳，人均创收有下降趋势。FY2017-2018 年，公司 人数经历了一个持续的增长期，从 2.3 万增长到 3.1 万人，但在之后的5 年内，公司人数稳中略有下降。公司人均创收整体在 150-200 万元之间 波动，近年来有下降趋势，人均创利则波动较大，最高点为 FY2018 的 12.8 万元。
产品上，汽车板块是营收主力，占比第二的是工业机械板块。营收上， 2022 财年 1）汽车板块的销售额达到了 251 亿元/-6.4%，这包括各种汽 车传动装置、电动助力转向装置、用于电力制动器的滚珠螺杆以及其他 用在汽车上的零部件。在汽车加速技术不断创新的过程中，电源的不断 变化以及自动驾驶技术的更新都起着重要作用，NSK 也正在这些领域不 断寻求突破。2）工业机械相关产品的销售额达到 180 亿元/+9.6%，包括 各种型号的微型轴承和特大号轴承，以及传动类装置，如滚珠螺杆、直 线导轨，还有各类机电零部件，如 XY 工作台，机械工具以及半导体设 备都需要它来进行精确定位。
按照地区来细分销售额，日本地区的销售额是有所下降的。这是由于各 个行业在新冠疫情期间的需求萎缩；而在美洲地区，由于售后部分的销 售额急剧下降，导致总销售额在这一财政年度有所下滑，但半导体产品 的销售额有所上升；欧洲的销售额由于电子零配件销售额的下降而下降； 而反观中国，在风力发电机、机器设备以及电子零部件等领域具有稳定 的需求，才使得 NSK 在中国的销售额仍有所上升。 全球营收中中日占比最高，其次为亚欧美等其他地区。2006 年至 2010 年期间，日本地区的营收逐年下降，亚洲其他地区的营收不断上升，原 因是在此期间 NSK 积极参与新兴国家（亚洲、中国、其他国家/地区） 的发展，有力推动全球的经济增长，致力于创造富足、幸福的社会，出 口亚洲他国比例上升，并在亚洲其他地区建立工厂；而在 2011 年至 2015 年，在日本营收经历了暴增与逐年递减，而在中国的营收逐年增加，因 为 2011 年成立了合肥恩斯克有限公司，NSK 在中国的市场逐渐扩大； 2016 年至 2021 年，日本地区的营收又有回升，同时亚洲营收增加、欧 洲营收下降，因为 2017 年印度新工厂成立，日本榛名工厂 3 号厂房竣 工，同时 NSK 开发了铁路列车用车身减振器；预计 2022 年以后，亚洲 地区的营收尤其中国的营收会进一步增长，NSK 的重心会逐步转移到中 国市场，因为受新冠疫情的长期影响以及中国国力的增长，中国的市场 具有更广阔的上升空间。
2.5.3. 汽车板块数字化转型，动力系统扩大生产
未来，NSK 计划在动力系统领域扩大生产，具体措施包括不断满足全球 对电气机车以及多步传动装置的需要，公司同样关注强制性电动制动系 统、自动驾驶汽车以及转向系统的研发。通过以上各类以及其他领域的 创新工作，NSK 将持续提高生产率以提高利润并降低各类固定成本。 全球分布情况较广，以中国、美国、英国、日本、印度等地为主。为了 方便 NSK全球生产与销售网络的正常运行，其在全球各地设有分工厂、 研发中心与销售网点，并在中国、日本、印度、美国、英国设有全球总 部。
恩斯克投资有限公司是日本精工株式会社的中国总部，全权负责中国大 陆及中国香港地区的生产技术销售营运。自 1992 年成立北京事务所以 来，NSK 在中国设立的生产、研发、销售公司及其子公司已多达 20 多 家，遍及中国各地。中国研发和生产基地共有 13 家，在中国国内，拥 有 1 家投资公司、10 家工厂、1 家贸易公司、1 家销售公司和 10 家销售 分公司，同时，为了进一步强化中国 NSK 的生产、技术、营销三位一 体的事业体制，向生产和营销提供强有力的技术支持，2008 年 1 月在昆 山成立了恩斯克(中国)研究开发有限公司，该公司是 NSK 投资的全资独 立法人研发公司，研发领域覆盖 NSK 所有的支柱产业，包括轴承、精 密机械产品、汽车零部件，以及与机械、机电产品有关的基础研究和应 用研究、生产技术的开发，为客户提供技术支持等。
中国是最重要的产销基地之一。恩斯克投资有限公司是日本精工株式会 社的中国总部，全权负责中国大陆及中国香港地区的生产技术销售营运。 自 1992 年成立北京事务所以来，NSK 在中国设立的生产、研发、销售 公司及其子公司已多达 20 多家，遍及中国各地。中国研发和生产基地 共有 13 家，在中国国内，拥有 1 家投资公司、10 家工厂、1 家贸易公 司、1 家销售公司和 10 家销售分公司，同时，为了进一步强化中国 NSK 的生产、技术、营销三位一体的事业体制，向生产和营销提供强有力的 技术支持，2008 年 1 月在昆山成立了恩斯克(中国)研究开发有限公司， 该公司是 NSK 投资的全资独立法人研发公司，研发领域覆盖 NSK 所有 的支柱产业，包括轴承、精密机械产品、汽车零部件，以及与机械、机 电产品有关的基础研究和应用研究、生产技术的开发，为客户提供技术 支持等。
2.6. 恩梯恩：世界轴承领先，盈利能力向好
2.6.1. 外延并购 Rulon 和 Federal-Mogul，布局汽车总成设计制造
公司强化轮毂轴承龙头地位，发挥协同效应布局全球。恩梯恩于 1918 年成立于日本三重县桑名郡，前身为西园铁工所。1923 年，公司开始生 产和销售轴承并建立来源为创办人首字母的NTN 商标。1971 年公司在 香港设立香港 NTN 贸易公司，开始进入中国市场，2005 年在上海成立 中国地区总部恩梯恩（中国）投资有限公司。恩梯恩产品以高品质引领 轴承行业，其轮毂轴承在全球市场份额第一。公司致力于全球布局，在 欧美亚30多个国家/地区拥有 2万多名员工，海外销售占比达50%以上， 其产品广泛应用于汽车、铁路车辆、工程机械、飞机、轨道卫星、航空 和医疗设备等众多领域。
公司的发展可以分为 1918-1968、1969-1982、1983-1990、1991-2004 和 2005 至今这 5 个阶段。 第一阶段是 1918-1968 年。公司初成，轴承起步。1918 年，NTN 创办西 园铁工所，开始研究及生产滚珠轴承。1923 年，NTN 商标建立。1927 年，成立 NTN 制作所。1934 年，改名为株式会社。1943 年，桑名工厂 开始生产滚珠。1954 年，荣获日本机械工业界首次颁发的戴明奖。1960 年，建立株式会社东洋轴承磐田制作所，开始批量生产滚珠轴承。1962 年，于西德成立 NTN 轴承（欧洲）公司。1963 年，成立美 NTN 轴承公 司。同年，与英国哈迪-斯帕舍（Hardy Spicer) 公司技术协作，开始生产 等速万向节（CVJ)。1964 年，与法国 INA-SIDAG 公司合资，建立销售 公司——NTN SIDAG S.A.，与英国 BIRFIELD 公司合资，建立销售公司 ——NTN 轴承 BIRFIELD 公司。1967 年，与台湾东培工业股份公司签 订技术援助合同。1968 年，成立 加拿大 NTN 轴承公司。
第二阶段是 1969-1982 年。打造世界级品牌，面对多元化挑战。CAGR 为 3.0%。1971 年，成立美国 NTN 轴承制造公司，同年成立香港 NTN 贸易公司——现为 NTN 中国有限公司，成立新加坡 NTN 公司与东洋 轴承冈山制作所（1983 年与 NTN 株式会社合并，成立 NTN 轴承制造 （德国）公司）。1975 年，在美国成立埃尔金（Elgin)NTN 轴承制造公 司。于 1985 年与美国 NTN 轴承公司合并，成立南美 NTN 公司。1976 年，成立 NTN 销售公司，不久之后，公司名称改为 NTN 销售株式会社， 2000 年与 NTN 株式会社合并。1981 年，重组研究部门，成立综合技术 研究所。 第三阶段是 1983-1990 年。向发达国家进军，往机电一体化转型。CAGR 为 3.8%。1986 年，成立首家航空宇宙专用轴承工厂。在桑名制作所建 成日本首家航空宇宙专用轴承工厂，使国内等速万节的累计产量达到一亿个。1988 年，在美国成立 NTN 技术中心。于 2002 年，职能移交给美 国 NTN 轴承公司的 NTN 汽车中心。1989 年，改名为 NTN 株式会社， 成立 NTN 传动轴（DriveShaft) 公司，建成磐田技术新馆。1990 年，成 立 NTN USA 公司作为美国总部。
第四阶段是 1991-2004年。以亚洲为中心，全球化转型。CAGR 为 3.2%。 1991 年，收购东洋轴承鲁隆（Rulon）公司。1996 年，收购美国费德勒 尔－莫固尔（Federal-Mogul）公司的滚珠轴承部门，成立 NTN-BCA 公 司。1997 年，成立巴西 NTN 公司。长野制作所和关联技术部门通过 ISO9001/QS-9000 认证，NTN 香港改名为恩梯恩中国有限公司，国内等 速万节的累计产量达到 2 亿个。2002 年，与台湾裕隆集团合资成立广州 恩梯恩裕隆传动系统有限公司，与冈谷钢机株式会社合资成立上海恩梯 恩精密机电有限公司，与日本电产株式会社合资成立恩梯恩日本电产 （浙江）有限公司。2004 年，成立 NTN 株式会社三重制作所，成为日该国内轴承的样板工厂。 第五阶段是 2005 年至今。进军发展中国家市场，致力创新可持续发展。 CAGR 为 1.2%。开发新一代转向控制软件和开发台车型自动移动机器 人用直驱车轮单元，预测未来 NTN 会向自动化、智能化转型。
公司主营轴承及精密仪器，涉足机械、车辆、风电、航空、医疗设备等 领域。1）公司为铁路、建筑、采矿、农业、钢铁、造纸、食品机械以 及机床提供特定功能的轴承以保证其在各种环境下的正常运行。2）在 车辆领域，恩梯恩拥有世界领先的轮毂轴承和用于传输发动机动力的等 速接头(CVJ)的份额。此外，为保护环境和有效利用资源，恩梯恩将电动 汽车(EV) 将 EV 电机专用轴承商业化，并开发许多 EV 系统产品，包 括轮内电机系统。3）风能作为可再生能源的需求正在增长， NTN 不 仅提供直径超过 2 米的超大型轴承，还提供实现设备安全运行的系统。 4）恩梯恩提供用于喷气发动机和火箭涡轮泵的轴承应用于航空领域， 提供从每分钟旋转数十万圈的牙科小轴承到超大型高精度 CT 扫描仪 的轴承以及辅助人工心脏泵的磁性轴承技术应用于医疗设备。
2.6.2. 各地区营收增速波动明显，近两年营收均在下降
企业人数基本保持平稳，人均创收未来仍有下降倾向。2011-2018 年， 公司人数经历了一个持续的增长期，从 20679 人一直到 25493 人，但在 之后的 3 年内，公司人数变动幅度不大且有一定的下降趋势，其中人均创收在 2012 年达到顶峰后开始有所下降，虽然在 2017 年回弹至局部最 高点，但在 2020-2021 年快速降至 772 万元/人。
汽车市场是营收主力，近两年面临亏损危机。营收上，1）汽车轴承市 场一直是公司的营收主力地位，占比达 65%。2）19-21 年公司营收下滑， 尤其是 20 和 21 年收入下滑 10%以上，20 年起出现扣非后归母净亏损。 3）对于近两年出现的收入下滑和亏损现象，恩梯恩称主要是由于新冠 疫情蔓延导致消费疲软，全球经济形势严峻，公司 2020 财年定位为危 机应对期，并将重点关注“确保员工的健康和安全”、紧急情况下的“确 保业务资金和持续业务”以及未来的增长。 在工业机械板块，截至 2021 年 3 月的财政年度中，由于新冠疫情下世 界经济的萎缩，第一季度的资本性支出政策较为谨慎。此后，中国的生 产活动比其他国家或地区更早地恢复至正常水平，同样，中国市场的需 求也更早地增加。然而，公司全年的工业机械板块的销售额与上一个财 政年度相比仍有所下滑，这主要是由于 2020 年（特别是上半年）新冠 肺炎疫情背景下全球机械厂商、经销商等对产品的需求下滑。 由于疫情限制了人们的活动，使得 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 3 月第一个季 度汽车生产量迅速下降，尽管从第二季度开始汽车市场有所回暖，但是 全年的汽车板块销售额较上一财政年度仍有所下降。最终，本年度汽车 板块销售额总计 335197 百万元，同比下降 13.67%。营业亏损达到 4018 百万元，而上一个财政年度的营业收入总计 9174 百万元，可以看出销 售额的下降带来的巨大影响。
全球营收中日本占比最高，其次为亚欧美等其他地区。2006 年至 2010 年期间，日本地区的营收逐年下降，亚洲其他地区的营收不断上升，原 因是在此期间 NTN 积极参与新兴国家（亚洲、中国、其他国家/地区） 的发展，有力推动全球的经济增长，致力于创造富足、幸福的社会，出口亚洲他国比例上升，并在亚洲其他地区建立工厂；而在 2011 年至 2015 年，在日本营收经历了暴增与逐年递减，而在中国的营收逐年增加，因 为 2011 年成立了恩梯恩 LYC (洛阳) 精密轴承有限公司和南京恩梯恩精 密机电有限公司，NTN 在中国的市场逐渐扩大；2016 年至 2021 年，日 本地区的营收又有回升，同时亚洲营收增加、欧洲营收下降，因为 2017 年印度新工厂成立，日本新工厂厂房竣工；预计 2022 年以后，亚洲地 区的营收尤其中国的营收会进一步增长，NTN的重心会逐步转移到中国 市场，因为受新冠疫情的长期影响以及中国国力的增长，中国的市场具有更广阔的上升空间。
公司综合毛利率先升后降，在 17%左右波动。公司毛利率 1994-2008 年 整体上升，2008-2021 年整体有所下降，2019 年后有下降幅度明显，据 公司指引，2023 年综合毛利率有望回升至 18%左右。 工业机械板块维持较高毛利率，但 2011-2020 年波动明显，近两年下降 显著。2016年达到顶峰（23.5%），但2021年降至最近十年最低点（-13.5%）， 因为新冠疫情的影响出海贸易受阻及工厂效率大幅降低。汽车工科与维 修板块一直稳定在 5%左右，但近几年有下降趋势。
2.6.3. 公司开拓全球布局，深耕中国市场
公司开拓全球布局，深耕中国市场。恩梯恩产业布局庞大，仅日本国内 共有 24 家生产基地和 8 家研发中心。为发展全球布局，恩梯恩在美洲、 亚洲、欧洲、大洋洲、非洲的三十多个国家和地区都设立了生产和销售 基地，生产基地主要集中在美国、德国、法国和中国，从本世纪起，在 中国设立了十家生产基地和两家研发中心。 全球分布情况较广，以中国、美国、英国、日本、印度等地为主。为了 方便 NTN 全球生产与销售网络的正常运行，其在全球各地设有分工厂、 研发中心与销售网点，并在中国、日本、印度、美国、英国设有全球总 部。
恩梯恩（中国）投资有限公司于 2005 年 6 月 17 日在上海市工商局登记 成立。自 1971 年成立恩梯恩中国有限公司以来，NSK 在中国设立的生 产、研发、销售公司及其子公司已多达 20 多家，遍及中国各地。中国 研发和生产基地共有 13 家，在中国国内，拥有 1 家投资公司、10 家工 厂、1 家贸易公司、1 家销售公司和 10 家销售分公司。
2.7. 捷太格特：转向系统行业龙头，盈利能力稳定
2.7.1. 光洋精工和丰田工机合并成立，全球转向系统行业龙头
公司协同三大品牌优势，在汽车、轴承、机床系统领域持续发力。光洋 精工（Koyo，1921 年成立）和丰田工机（TOYODA，1941 年成立）于 2006 年 1 月合并，创立全新的“捷太格特（JTEKT）”。光洋精工专研轴 承，丰田工机致力于机床，对汽车动力转向系统的不断挑战精神，使得 捷太格特将二者完美结合。
前身之一：旧光洋精工时代。1921年，“光洋精工社”在大阪创立，并 于 1935 年改组成为“光洋精工株式会社”。50 年代末，在美国创立轴承销售公司并开始研发日本东海道新干线用轴承。1960 年，公司进入汽车零部件行业，开始研发、试制汽车转向器，并于 1976 年正式进军助力 转向器市场。1983 年，高性能圆锥滚子轴承 LFT 系列诞生，相较于其 他公司同类产品在减少摩擦阻力上具有压倒性优势。1988 年，公司面向 小型车，开发生产世界首台电动助力转向器——管柱式电动助力转向器。 1995 年和 1996 年，公司先后在华成立无锡光洋轴承有限公司和豫北光 洋转向器有限公司，开始在华生产。 前身之二：旧丰田工机时代。1941 年，机床部门从丰田汽车分离，在爱 知县刈谷市成立了“丰田工机”。1952 年，公司正式进入汽车零部件行业，并于 1955 年与丰田汽车合作，共同开发了自动生产线，这对于汽车的大批量生产具有划时代意义；与此同时，公司也与法国的 Gendron 进行技术合作，开始研发外圆磨床。1964 年，为实现汽车零部件事业的更大飞跃，公司开始研发当时具有高附加价值的滚珠丝杠式液压助力转向器。1968 年，公司开始生产汽车助力转向器与“卧式加工中心”。70 年代至 80 年代，公司开发的转向器、等速万向接头、联轴节等产品被 丰田汽车采用，并于 1999 年建成丰田工机客户中心。2003 年，在中国 成立汽车零部件生产工厂，并开始生产首个在日本取得最高水准国家规 格认证的产品——可编程逻辑控制器（PLC）。
2.7.2. 盈利能力较为稳定，汽车配件及轴承产品是营收主力
公司产品主要涉足汽车配件、轴承、机床与机电一体化产品。1）汽车 配件主要包括转向器、驱动装置、砂轮、引擎及周边零件和传动装置。 2）轴承主要包括深沟球轴承、角接触球轴承、特殊环境用球轴承、推 力球轴承、圆锥滚子轴承、圆柱滚子轴承、滚针轴承以及油封。3）机 床与机电一体化产品主要包括磨床、加工中心、可编程逻辑控制器、运 动控制器和通用操作面板。
2006 年以来公司营收呈波动增长趋势，利润增速波动幅度较营收增速波 动幅度大。2006-07 年、2010-13 年、2016-18 年为公司的快速发展阶段， 由于国内外汽车行业的蓬勃发展，对机械和设备零件的需求量扩大，带 动公司机械和设备产品销售量猛增。2008-09 年，由于美国次贷问题引 发的金融危机蔓延全球，日本经济也迅速恶化，强势日元和原材料价格 上涨迫使公司出口产品价格上升，加之全球经济衰退，需求降低，公司 产品销量大幅下降。2019-20 年，由于中美贸易摩擦加剧，中国经济放 缓以及新冠病毒感染蔓延，导致公司的转向器、驱动器和轴承产品需求 大幅度下降，进而促使公司产品营收以及营业利润下降。
公司净利率波动较大，近年来呈下降趋势，机床营收利润率高于汽车配件及轴承。公司成立伊始，结合光洋精工和丰田工机的技术优势与品牌 效应，在汽车的机械和设备零件领域销售强劲，营收大幅增加，收获较高利润。2008 和 2009 年，由于原材料价格飙升、美国次级贷款问题引发的金融危机蔓延，日本经济迅速急剧恶化，机械订单普遍疲软，加上收到汽车制造商抑制资本投资的影响，机床订单水平较2007 年的峰值 水平低 34%，直接导致公司营业收入及利润下降。2010 年开始，全球经 济走上稳步复苏的道路。公司为吸取 08 年金融危机教训，整合产品和 提高生产效率，进一步降低公司成本。2011 年至 2017 年，随着大规模 轴承技术研发中心的建立与投入运作，公司的生产效率和技术水平得以提升，营业收入及利润稳步增长。2019 年至 2020 年，全球经济受到新的冠状病毒的影响，出现显著的负增长，各项经济活动也受到重大制约， 加上中美贸易摩擦的加剧，导致转向器、驱动器和轴承业务需求大幅下降。
2.7.3. 深度融合技术优势，事业分布布局全球
深度融合技术优势，形成技术壁垒，市场份额领先。轴承和机床产品加 工制造专业性较强，需要通过多年的积累和研究才能完全掌握。下游制 造厂商对产品的质量要求严格，因此需要有专门的研发团队并具备丰富 的生产制造经验。捷太格特的前身是光洋精工和丰田工机，光洋精工致 力于研发轴承和转向器，生产经验丰富；丰田工机专研机床，在机床与 汽车零部件领域具有丰富的技术积累。捷太格特通过整合二者的技术优 势，并在此基础上不断进行研发投入与技术创新，目前已开发了代替已 有加工方法的车削加工法必要的独家技术，具有较大的竞争优势，有利 于对新进入者构成一定的技术壁垒。此外，通过光洋精工和丰田工机的 合并，使新公司捷太格特拥有了世界第一的转向系统行业市场份额，客 户遍及全球，并结合轴承行业、机床行业、传动行业成为主要的 4 大行 业，将各行业进行充分自由的组合，成为了能够综合提供世界顶级水平 的系统的制造厂商，产业领域宽泛深入。
事业分布布局全球，海外营收不断增加。随着公司自动化水平与生产效 率的提高，公司产量不断增加，日本本土市场已经无法满足公司业务发 展需求，因此，公司开始向海外拓展业务。截至到目前，捷太格特已经 在全球设立约 140 家企业，拥有 4 万多名员工，除日本本土外，范围上 涵盖了亚洲、欧洲、北美洲和大洋洲，类型包括转向系统生产、驱动部 件生产、轴承生产与机床生产等，并在海外设有 11 家科技研发中心。 2021 年，公司在海外获得的营收占总营收比重为 59.26%，远超在日本 本土市场份额。
稳固本土市场，持续在华扩张。捷太格特在稳固本土市场份额的同时， 持续对外扩张，扩大在全球的生产基地，进一步增强企业影响力。目前， 捷太格特公司已在华投资建设了 13 家大型制造基地，涵盖辽宁省大连 市、江苏省无锡市、广东省佛山市、天津市和福建省厦门市，致力于生 产优质轴承产品、汽车转向系统产品和机床，为中国工业售后市场的经 销商们提供工业产品管理服务，以适应快速增长的本地需求。2021 年， 中国已经成为捷太格特第二大海外市场，销售收入占比从 2020 年的 10.94%增加至 2021 年的 14.49%。
2.8. 美蓓亚：先后向海外扩张和业务集约，由点及面拓展高 精密零部件
2.8.1. 立足机械加工品领域，发挥产品协同效应，提升单客户价值量。
公司先后向海外扩张和业务集约，拓展高精密零部件。美蓓亚前身为 1951 年成立的日本微型轴承公司，为日本首家微型轴承制造商。1961 年，在东交所第二部上市。1974 年至今，收购新兴通信工业株式会社等 多家日本制造企业，通过海外拓展和产业整合，完善了公司轴承制造的 产销体系。2017 年，公司全资收购三美株式会社，集团总公司更名为美 蓓亚三美株式会社。
美蓓亚历史主要可以分为以下五个阶段。第一阶段 1951-1960 年为奠基 起步期，CAGR 128%。第二阶段 1960-1980 年为初始扩张期，CAGR 16.4%。第三阶段 1980-1995 年为快速增长期，营收从 18 亿增至 206 亿 人民币，CAGR 17.6%。第四阶段 1990-2010 年为波动期，受金融危机影 响较大，CAGR -1.35%。第五阶段 2010-2020 年为二次增长期，三美和 有信业务整合实现营收增长，CAGR 14.1%。 第一阶段：1951-1960 年，日本战后经济体复苏，微型滚珠轴承起步。 高桥诚一郎（满洲里飞机制造工程师）于 1951 年成立日本第一家微型 滚珠轴承专业制造商“日本微型轴承株式会社”，主要下游为飞机工业。 1952 年公司第一条轴承生产线启动，同时也是日本第一条微型轴承生产 线。轴承业务发展主要得益于日本战后制造业恢复，政府通过汽车零部 件和家用电器补贴推动制造业发展。1959 年，日本推出第一部《机械工 业促进暂行措施法》，奠定公司轴承事业发展的基础。 第二阶段：1960-1980 年，美欧海外扩张，拓展电机产业线，产品多元 化。1961 年公司在东京证券交易所第二部上市。NSK、NTN、不二越等 日本本土轴承公司占据主要国内市场份额，公司积极开拓美国和欧洲的 销售渠道。同期日本轴承出口委员会成立，日本贸易和工业部宣布放宽 包括轴承的 275 种产品出口。公司先后在日本、美国、新加坡设生产基 地，其中收购 SKF 的 REED 工厂（现 Chatsworth 工厂）实现美国本地 化轴承生产。1960 年后期，产品布局向杆端轴承和步进电机拓展，开始 内部生产冲压件，为“垂直集成生产系统”奠定基础。公司通过收购日 本和海外公司扩大产业线，从专门从事微型球轴承的制造商发展为综合 精密零件制造商。
第三阶段：1980-1995 年，国内外并购，拓展半导体和电子设备。1981 年，公司与东京螺丝株式会社、新光通信工业株式会社、新中央工业株 式会社、大阪车轮株式会社合并，更名为“美蓓亚株式会社”，在日本 海内外并购扩大业务规模。原有机械加工产品和设备业务基础上，公司 向半导体和电子设备零部件业务的分销和赊销扩展。 第四阶段：1995-2010 年，日本经济泡沫破裂，业务集约、进军中国。日本泡沫经济破灭后，公司偿还大量债务强化财务结构，精简管理，战 略性集中业务。1994 年在中国上海设厂生产，专注中国市场。1997FY 公司销售额首次超过 3000 亿日元。 第五阶段：2010-2020 年，高精密零部件拓展，收购三美和有信，整合 完善公司的产销体系。全球经济衰退环境下，公司加强机加工零部件和 电子设备零部件业务。2010 年前期由于日本重大自然灾害、稀土飙升、 日元升值至历史最高水平等诸多不利因素，公司进行业务结构改革，加 强纵向一体化生产能力和业务部门间的横向协作能力。2017 年全资收购 三美，更名为美蓓亚三美株式会社，2019 年收购有信。
立足机械加工品领域，发挥产品协同效应，提升单客户价值量。公司累计并购国内外子公司 122 起，机械加工品领域（含轴承）占比最多，并 购 29 起，占比 23.7%；电子产品领域占比第二，并购 13 起，占比 10.7%。 1980-1995年以收购机械加工品领域子公司为主，推动营收从 18.1 亿增 至约 200 亿，CAGR 17.6%。2000 年至今以收购电子产品制造子公司为 主，其中，2017 和 2019 年分别收购三美电机和有信，向汽车零部件产 品拓展，发挥轴承产品协同效应，提升单客户价值量，推动营收从300 亿增至约 600 亿，2016-2021 年 CAGR5 18.2%。
公司产品主要涉足机械加工品事业、有信事业、三美事业、电子产品事 业四大领域。1）机械加工品事业主要产品为滚珠轴承、杆端轴承、球 面轴承、紧固件等，下游领域为汽车、高端家电、数据中心、医疗设备、 航空航天等。2）有信事业主要产品为汽车零部件、产业机械用零部件、 办公楼住宅用锁等，下游领域为汽车、农业机械、产业机械、家用安保 单元。3）三美事业主要产品为轻触开关、连接器等，负责为游戏机组 装，下游领域为高端家电、物联网设备、游戏控制台等。4）电子产品 事业主要产品为冷却风扇电机、步进电机、传感装置等，下游领域为高 端家电、自动办公设备、智能手机、可穿戴设备。
2.8.2. 综合毛利率逐年下降，机械零部件维持高盈利
2013 年至今公司净利润波动较大，自动化程度较高。1995-2012 年营收 稳定有波动，CAGR -0.1%，主要受全球经济环境衰退周期影响。 2013-2020 年，营收不断攀升 CAGR 14.4%，2021 年营收达 9884 亿日元 （约合 632 亿人民币），营收增长推动力主要为公司分别于 2017 年和 2019 年收购三美事业和有信事业，拓展汽车零部件和轻触开关等产品市 场。净利润波动较大，于 1993 年、2000 年出现净亏损，2014 年净利润 大幅上升至 13 亿元，2021 年净利润 25 亿元，略有下降。2021 年末公 司在全球 27 个国家有 95 个生产基地和 91 个经销商。公司在全球有约 8.7 万名员工，人均创收 1100 万日元（约合 65 万人民币），自动化程度 较高。
产品上，电子产品和三美事业是营收主力，电子产品和机械加工品营收 稳定增长。营收上，1）电子产品是公司的主力产品，营收占比一直在37%以上；其中电子设备（LED 背光模组）、HDD 主轴电机、信息电机 营收同比大幅增长，主要得益于高端智能手机市场的蓬勃发展，下游客 户为苹果主机厂和数据中心。2）2017 年收购三美事业以来，三美事业 营收及占比增长迅速，至 2021 财年营收达 239 亿元，营收占比 36%。3） 机械加工品营收份额逐年减少至 18%，其中标杆产品滚珠轴承份额比较稳定，三年份额均保持在 11%以上。
下游领域上，OA/通讯、个人电脑与汽车下游领域为营收主要驱动。1） 2007-2017 年 OA/通讯应用营收快速增长，物联网下游带动需求放量， 其中 LED 背光模组、IC 电池半导体用于智能手机，深沟球轴承和风扇 电机用于数据中心、监控摄像头等；2）2007-2021 年个人电脑和外围设 备下游订单不断下降，主要因为办公自动化放缓，PC 市场需求收缩；3） 2017 年以来汽车应用营收稳定增长，产品为车载天线、显示器、热管理 系统等汽车零部件产品，主要原因是全球新能源车市场需求旺盛，带动 汽车零部件营收快速增长。4）航天航空需求不断缩小。
2.8.3. 全球微型和小型滚珠轴承龙头，向超精密加工核心技术布局
公司起步阶段驱动力主要来源于：1）微型和小型滚珠轴承全球市占率 60%，轴承产线覆盖广。公司是全球微型和小型滚珠轴承龙头，拥有 8,500 多种微小型滚珠轴承生产线，外径 22mm 以下的微小型滚珠轴承广泛用 于汽车、家电（吸尘器、空调）、医疗器具等各种领域，在全球拥有 60% 的市场份额。滚珠轴承借助摩擦力较小的滚珠转动，可实现机械高效传导动能、延长寿命并减轻故障。随着机械向小型化发展，高精度微小型 滚珠轴承的需求将与日俱增。
2）公司客户涵盖主要日系汽车主机厂商，汽车轻量化趋势促使微型轴 承需求增加。公司是日产 Nissan、本田、马自达、梅赛德斯-奔驰、现代 等主机厂 Tier 2 供应商，主要配备微小型发动机轴承、小型电机和传感 器。由于日趋严格的油耗法规，众多整车厂商加大力度向发动机轻量化 和小型化研发转型，微小型轴承需求日益增加。为解决普通油润滑轴承 摩擦阻力大、延时感强、燃效低等问题，公司开发高耐热性滚珠轴承组 件，在相同轴转速下产生更低的机械损失，可实现低扭矩性、耐久性、 耐热性，未来有望替代油润滑轴承广泛采用于汽车发动机的涡轮增压器。 3）公司获 Nadcap 和波音公司双重认证，认证流程复杂。2007 年，滚 子轴承获得国家航空航天和国防承包商认可计划（Nadcap）特殊工艺认 证和波音公司资格认证。Nadcap 认证属于波音、空客、GE 特种工艺项 目供应商的强制要求，认证周期 24 个月，认证流程复杂，涵盖无损检 测、热处理和表面化学工艺处理，如热处理至少包括 10 种合金、16 种 工艺和 3 项服务。公司旗下 NHBB 天文部门为波音公司发动机、直升机 提供轴承零部件，应用于波音 707-300、707-335 等型号产品。
4）公司掌握全球最小轴承技术专利，向超精密加工核心技术布局。公 司可超精密加工生产轴承、杆端轴承、电机等先进机械加工品，需要亚 微米级别高精度切削、研磨、抛光，技术壁垒较高。公司具备多年微型 加工品生产技术经验，可量产外径 1.5mm 全球最小尺寸微型滚珠轴承， 旋转精度受内外圈辊道圆度、球面度和轴承零件原材料质量三方面影响。 公司量产 0.3mm LED 超薄高亮背光模组为全球最薄加工尺寸，随着手 机和汽车液晶显示器市场需求激增，高亮高效薄型 LED 背光模组将大量 用于微型液晶模块。
3.重点公司分析
3.1. 五洲新春：立足套圈打造轴承磨前技术优势，充分受益 于新能源车和风电普及
五洲新春是一家套圈及成品轴承供应商。主营业务为轴承、精密机械零 部件、汽车安全系统和热管理系统零部件的研发、生产和销售。近年来， 公司以轴承为基础，向汽车零部件、风电滚子等产业拓展，布局未来， 转型高端精密制造。公司的轴承磨前技术已达到全球先进水平，轴承产 业链经营位居全国前列。 公司深耕轴承制造 23 年。公司前身为 1999 年成立的轴承公司：新昌县 五洲实业有限公司，2002 年浙江五洲新春集团成立，2012 年更名为浙 江五洲新春集团股份有限公司；2016 年于上交所主板上市。公司深耕精 密制造技术二十余载，从轴承制造延伸，已成功打造出一条涵盖精密锻 造、制管、冷成形、机加工、热处理、磨加工、装配的“纵向一体化”轴 承、精密零部件制造全产业链。五洲新春可以从较长产业链中获得较高 利润。
在诸多不利因素影响下，公司保持良好的增长势头。2022 上半年，面对 严峻复杂的国际环境和国内疫情反弹等超预期因素冲击和影响，轴承行业下行压力陡然增加。公司近年来致力于产品和管理的转型升级，不断开发新产品、进入新市场，并得益于 2021年下半年对欧洲老牌轴承企业 FLT 的并购，使成品轴承市场占有率大幅提升。在克服报告期内轴承 行业普遍面临的诸多不利因素后，公司保持良好的增长势头。 2022H1 稳定增长，主营业务更加突出。2022年上半年实现主营业务收入 16.67 亿/+45.1%，归母净利润 9200 万元/+10.22%。特别是轴承业务 销售持续增长，轴承产品包括成品轴承、套圈、风电滚子,轴承整体业务 收入 9.93 亿元/+71.82%，其中成品轴承增长 142.63%，套圈业务增长 28.79%，风电滚子增长 84.1%，轴承销售约占总销售的 60%，毛利润占 65.84%，主营业务更加突出。
3.2. 长盛轴承：国内自润滑轴承龙头，受益于滑动轴承渗透 率提升
公司是专门从事自润滑轴承的研发、生产和销售的高新技术企业。主要 产品双金属自润滑轴承、金属塑料自润滑轴承、金属基自润滑轴承、塑 料自润滑轴承等 50%左右出口欧美、日本等 30 多个国家和地区，主要 用于汽车、工程机械、农业机械、轻工机械、大型施工机械、航空航天、 高速列车、高速高精数控机床、核电等领域，自润滑轴承已成为轴承行 业发展较快的子行业之一。 公司深耕轴承制造 27 年。长盛轴承始创于 1995 年，2003 年扩建长盛路 厂区，并于 2008 年成立省级自润滑轴承分技术委员会秘书处单位，2011 年整体改制为股份有限公司，2017 年在深交所创业板成功上市，是行业 内第一家。公司拥有省级研究院、省级创新团队具有较强的自主创新能力，是全球最专业的滑动轴承制造商之一。
经营业绩稳定增长，净利润水平有所下滑。近年来公司经营业绩实现稳 健增长，2017-2021 年公司营业收入由 5.67 亿元增长至 9.85 亿元，复合 增速为 14.8%，归母净利润由 1.21 亿元增长至 1.55 亿元，复合增速为 6.4%，公司营收和归母净利润近年来基本呈现出稳健增长的态势。2022 年上半年实现主营业务收入 5.30 亿/+6.01%，归母净利润 0.78 亿/-15.16%， 公司利用核心技术优势、新品研发优势，抓住新能源、消费升级等的良 好发展机遇，继续扩大市场，增加公司营收和利润，公司收入维持较快 增长，净利润水平有所下滑。
3.3. 新强联：风电主轴轴承量产进度领先，积极布局齿轮箱 零部件
公司是一家专业从事大型回转支承和工业锻件的研发、生产和销售的高新技术企业。公司拥有强大的研发能力和先进的生产工艺。经过多年的 研发及生产实践，获得多项发明专利,公司研制开发了 2 兆瓦永磁直驱式 风力发电机三排滚子主轴轴承、盾构机系列主轴承(属国家“863”火炬计 划)、防腐式船用回转支承等产品，上述产品获得了中国机械工业联合会 的科学技术成果鉴定。 深耕高端轴承 17 年，高端轴承技术国内领先。洛阳新强联回转支承股 份有限公司（300850.SZ）成立于 2005 年，为国家级重点高新技术企业， 2020 年 7月在深交所创业板上市，公司以大型回转支承产品和风力发电 机偏航变桨轴承、主轴承及齿轮箱轴承的研发、制造、销售为主。公司 轴承产品为高技术产品，自 2006 年入局海装行业，2009 年入局风电、 盾构机行业，在高端轴承行业深耕多年，公司是国内创新型高端轴承龙头企业。
公司风电产品业务大幅增长，毛利率保持高位。公司业务主要分为风电 类、海工装备类、盾构机类和锻件类产品，其中锻件类产品为轴承产品 原料，部分自用。2020 年受益于风电抢装，风电产品营收大幅增长，成 为公司主要营收来源，2021 年风电产品营收占比达 86%。公司产品多为 高端轴承产品，通过塑造产品的高技术壁垒，公司毛利率保持高位，公 司综合毛利率维持在约 30%，与风电类产品相近。
3.4. 金沃股份：轴承套圈头部企业，重视扩产与产业链延伸
金沃股份是集轴承套圈研发、生产、销售于一体的专业化制造公司。主 要产品包含球类、滚针类和滚子类等产品，产品最终应用领域广泛涉及 交通运输、工程机械、家用电器、冶金等国民经济各行各业。 深耕高端轴承 15 年，目前已进入国际大型轴承企业的供应体系。公司 前身建沃精工成立于 2007 年，并于 2008 年成为舍弗勒（Schaeffler）合 格供应商，2010 和斯凯孚（SKF）、恩斯克（NSK）、恩梯恩（NTN）、 捷太格特（JTEKT）建立合作。2016 年公司启动 IPO，2019 年公司开拓 了瓦房店轴承集团等国内客户，开始进入国内市场。2021 年，公司创业 板首次公开发行股票的注册申请获批。
2017-2021 年收入和净利润 CAGR 分别为 20.89%和 60.10%。营业收入 从 2017 年的 419.26 百万元增至 2021 年的 895.59 百万元，CAGR 为 20.89%；归属于母公司股东的净利润从 2017 年的 9.57 百万元增至 2021 年的 62.88 百万元，年均复合增长率为 60.10%。受疫情影响，公司 2020 年营业收入较 2019 年下降 2.9%，归属于母公司股东的净利润较 2019 年 下降 10.1%。但随着疫情状况缓解，公司逐渐复工复工，业务所受影响 逐渐减小。自 2020 年底开始，公司客户的订单需求慢慢恢复，营业收 入呈现增长趋势，并在 2021 和 2022H1 保持增长趋势。
3.5. 力星股份：国内钢球龙头，积极布局陶瓷球打开第二成 长曲线
公司强化滚动体行业龙头地位，稳固高端钢球市场份额。江苏力星钢球 有限公司成立于 1989 年，1999 年与美国通用轴承公司（GBC）合资成 立江苏通用钢球滚子有限公司。2015 年，公司在深圳所创业板上市，分 别在上海自贸区、浙江奉化、美国特拉华州、江苏如皋建有全资子公司。 公司始终将自主研发和工艺创新放在首位，拥有国际领先的精密轴承钢球技术创新能力，与国际高端客户建立起了牢固的供应关系，目前是国内唯一一家进入世界前八大跨国轴承制造商全球采购体系的内资钢球 企业。 公司产品属于轴承零配件，包括滚动体中的精密轴承钢球和轴承滚子。 按照应用领域，钢球产品可细分为精密电机专用钢球、汽车专用钢球和 风电专用钢球，主要规格为公称直径 1.588mm~90.0mm，精度等级为 G3~G60。产品广泛应用于机动车制造、家电电器、精密机床、风力发电、工程机械、电动工具、轨道交通、智能机器人等终端行业，其中 35% 以上的产品用于汽车工业。
2012 年至 2021 年公司业绩稳中有升。营收上，公司自上市以来，营业 收入逐年增加，且增长速度较快，2021 年公司实现营收 9.74 亿元/+23.7%。 2）利润上，公司净利润增速同营收增速相当，呈稳中有升趋势，2021 年净利润 9033 万/+49.1%。
3.6. 恒润股份：风电法兰龙头，偏变及主轴轴承进展顺利
恒润股份是一家能够为客户提供设计、锻造、精加工一站式服务的精密 机械制造商。公司产品涵盖风电法兰、风电轴承、燃气轮机部件、核电 部件、半导体设备、压力容器、海上油气装备等，产品主要应用于风电 行业、石化行业、金属压力容器行业、机械行业、船舶、核电等多种行 业。公司拥有大型油压机和数控碾环机，掌握着成熟的中大型环锻件的 锻造、碾环、热处理技术，能够生产直径 12 米以下的各类环形锻件；引进了德国、美国、西班牙等世界一流的加工中心、车铣复合等高端精 密设备和检测设备，掌握着各种精密机械零部件的深加工技术，是业内 少有的同时掌握锻件和深加工技术的公司。 成立于 2003 年 7 月，恒润股份致力于打造具有国际知名度的高端精密 机械制造商。已经与德国西门子、美国 GE、美国艾默生、丹麦维斯塔 斯以及上海电气、烟台万华、中广核、中石化等世界行业巨头展开了深 度合作，并先后获得了西门子、GE、艾默生、中核二三建设等众多公司 “优秀供应商”的荣誉称号。2006 年，日本三井造船株式会社在对江阴恒 润法兰有限公司现场考察后，当场订购两个集装箱的不锈钢法兰产品。 这是我国法兰首次进入日本船用市场。2017 年 5 月 5 日江阴市恒润重工 股份有限公司在上证交易所上市。
辗制环形锻件、真空腔体及其配件与锻制法兰及其他自由锻件毛利率均 维持在较高水平。从主营产品看，2021 年公司营收占比前三大产品辗制 环形锻件、锻制法兰及其他自由锻件和真空腔体及其配件的毛利率均维 持在较高水平，分别为 33.37%、23.05%、22.74%，三大产品毛利率占 比较为均衡。受 2022 年 H1 疫情影响，三大主营产品毛利率均有所下滑。
（本文仅供参考，不代表我们的任何投资建议。如需使用相关信息，请参阅报告原文。）
精选报告来源：【未来智库】。
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